2. Introduction to Probability
(1) PubHlth 540 2011, (2) additional reading, (3) illustrative applets, (4) calculators (5) computer illustrations.

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(1) PubHlth 540 - 2011
Lecture Notes 2011 Unit 2. Introduction to Probability	(pdf, 55 pp)
Text, Rosner, Bernard- Fundamentals of Biostatistics, 7th Edition	Ch 3. Probability pp 38-56
Alternative text, Daniel, WW - Biostatistics - A Foundation for Analysis in the Health Sciences, 9th Edition	Ch 3. Some Basic Probability pp 65-86
Homework due Monday October 3, 2011	(pdf, 4 pp)
Solutions to Homework	(pdf, 5 pp)
Practice Quiz - Questions	(pdf, 2 pp)
Practice Quiz - Solutions	(pdf, 3 pp)
FAQ - On Multiplication and Addition of Probabilities - When do I add and when do I multiply?	(pdf, 2 pp)

(2) Additional Reading
(Source: Tversky A and Kahneman D.) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases	(pdf)
(Source: Tversky A and Kahneman D.) 11. Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability	(pdf)
(Source: StatTrek) StatTrek AP Introduction to Probability	1. Probability 2. Rules of Probability
(Source: analyzemath.com) Introduction to Probability	(html)
(Source:  Thinkquest.org) Easy to read (and with examples) introduction to rules of probability with examples	(html)
(Source: Statistics Help-on-line) Easy to read introduction to venn diagrams and probability	(html)
(Source: Norman Fenton, Queen Mary University of London) One page explanation of Bayes Rule	(html)
(Source: analyzemath.com) Probability Questions with Solutions	(html)
(Source: Surfstat Australia) An Example of Bayes theorem in medical diagnostics	(html)
(Source: Frances Boreland at University of Sydney, 2005) Measures of Frequency and Association - 35 easy to read slides	(pdf)
New! 9-23-2011 (Source: TED Talks) aDan Gilbert - On Our Mistaken Expectations - 33 minute video	(html)

(3) Illustrative Applets
(Source: P. B. Stark, Berkeley) Venn Diagrams and Probability	(html)

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(4) Calculators
(Source:  Vassar Stats) Backward Probability Template - Good for Bayes Rule	(html)

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(5) Computer Illustrations

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