Topic 2 - Introduction to Probability

Scroll down for (1) PubHlth 540 2008, (2) Links to Additional Readings, (3) Links to Illustrative Applets, (4) Links to Calculators, and (5) Miscellaneous.

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(1) PubHlth 540 2008
Lecture Notes Topic 2. Introduction to Probability (pdf, 54 pp)
Reading in Text (Rosner, 6th Edition) Part I: pp 43-57
Reading in Text (Rosner, 6th Edition) Part II: pp 57-68
Week 3 Practice Problems Part I due Mon Oct 6, 2008 (pdf, 1 pp) Solutions (pdf, 2 pp)
Week 4 Practice Problems Part II due Mon Oct 13, 2008 (pdf) Solutions (pdf)
Self Evaluation Quiz (pdf, 2 pp) Solutions (pdf, xx pp)

(2) Links to Additional Readings (articles, lectures, tutorials, powerpoint, etc)
Elementary Probability
(Source:  Math Forum at Drexel) Introduction to Probabililty (html)
(Source: Purple Math) Introduction to Venn Diagrams with example (html)
(Source: Oswego City School District Regents Exam Preparation) Lesson on Venn Diagrams (html)
(Source: analyzemath.com) Introduction to Probability (html)
(Source: Gisele Glosser, mathgoodies.com) Introduction to Conditional Probability w Examples (html)
UMass PubHlth 540 (Loureiro).  Elementary Probability Theory 1 (pdf, 3 pp)
UMass PubHlth 540 (Loureiro).  Elementary Probability Theory 2 (pdf, 2 pp)
UMass PubHlth 540 (Stoddard)  Introduction to Probability (pdf, 19 pp)
(Source: Laura Simon, Penn State) - A nice 20 slide introduction (html)
(Source: Bob Heckard, Penn State) - A nice 15 slide introduction (html)
(Source:  Thinkquest.org) Easy to read (and with examples) introduction to rules of probability with examples (html)
(Source: Statistics Help-on-line) Easy to read introduction to venn diagrams and probability (html)
(Source: Sandra LaFave, West Valley College) Introduction to Probability (html)

Diagnostic Testing and ROC Curves
UMass PubHlth 540 (Stoddard) Introduction to Sensitivity and Specificity (pdf, 3 pp)
(Source: Halls, S.) Easy to read introduction to sensitivity, specificity, and ROC Curve (html)
(Source: Loong, T) Understanding Sensitivity and Specificity With the Right Side of the Brain BMJ 2003: 327: 716-719 (html)
(Source: Medical University of South Carolina) Example of Sensitivity and Specificity (html)

Bayesian Reasoning
(Source: Yudkowsky Eliezer) An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning (html)
(Source: Norman Fenton, Queen Mary University of London) One page explanation of Bayes Rule (html)
(Source: A.J. Hildebrand, University of Ilinois Urbana-Champaign) Bayes Rule (more mathematical) (pdf, 2 pp)
(Source: R.E.G. Upshur) On Bayes and Clinical Reasoning (pdf)
(Source: Surfstat Australia) An Example of Bayes theorem in medical diagnostics (html)
(Source: The Economist, September 28, 2000) Essay on Bayes. Note 9-21-2008 Unfortunately, now requires log in( (html)
(Source: Robert A.J. Matthews) Essay on the Relevence of Bayes Theorem to Clinicians (html)

Risk, Odds, and Measures of Association for the 2x2 Table
(Source: Frances Boreland at University of Sydney, 2005) Measures of Frequency and Association - 35 easy to read slides (pdf)


(3) Links to Illustrative Applets
(Source:  Berkeley) Applet on venn diagrams and probability (html)
(Source: Shodor Education) Interactive Venn Diagrams (html)
(Source: Charles Stanton) Java Demonstrations for probability and statistics (html)
(Source: Gametheory.net) Bayes Rule Applet (html)
New! 10-09-2008 (Source: Vassar State) Backward Probability Template (html)



(4) Links to Calculators
UCLA Department of Statistics Probabilites Calculators (click here)
(Source: VassarStats) Probabilities Calculators and lots more wonderful things! (html)
(Source: VassarStats) Clinical Calculator (good for Bayes, predictive value test) (html)
StatTrek Probabilities Calculators, including F (click here)

 

(5) Miscellaneous
(Source: Dartmouth College) Chance Website (html)
(Source: analyzemath.com) Probability Questions with Solutions (html)