BE 540
Introduction to Biostatistics
Biostatistics and Epidemiology
UMass Amherst
This Week

Table of Contents

Summarizing Data
Introduction to Probability
Populations and Samples

Bernoulli and Binomal Distributions
Normal Distribution
Hypothesis Testing
Chi Square Tests

Topic 2 - Introduction to Probability

Scroll down for (1) PubHlth 540 2008, (2) Links to Additional Readings, (3) Links to Illustrative Applets, (4) Links to Calculators, and (5) Miscellaneous.

Download adobe reader (click here)

(1) PubHlth 540 2008
Lecture Notes Topic 2. Introduction to Probability (pdf, 54 pp)
Reading in Text (Rosner, 6th Edition) Part I: pp 43-57
Reading in Text (Rosner, 6th Edition) Part II: pp 57-68
Week 3 Practice Problems Part I due Mon Oct 6, 2008 (pdf, 1 pp) Solutions (pdf, 2 pp)
Week 4 Practice Problems Part II due Mon Oct 13, 2008 (pdf) Solutions (pdf)

Self Evaluation Quiz (pdf, 2 pp) Solutions (pdf, xx pp)

(2) Links to Additional Readings (articles, lectures, tutorials, powerpoint, etc)

Elementary Probability
(Source:  Math Forum at Drexel) Introduction to Probabililty (html)
(Source: Purple Math) Introduction to Venn Diagrams with example (html)
(Source: Oswego City School District Regents Exam Preparation) Lesson on Venn Diagrams (html)
(Source: Introduction to Probability (html)
(Source: Gisele Glosser, Introduction to Conditional Probability w Examples (html)
UMass PubHlth 540 (Loureiro).  Elementary Probability Theory 1 (pdf, 3 pp)
UMass PubHlth 540 (Loureiro).  Elementary Probability Theory 2 (pdf, 2 pp)
UMass PubHlth 540 (Stoddard)  Introduction to Probability (pdf, 19 pp)
(Source: Laura Simon, Penn State) - A nice 20 slide introduction (html)
(Source: Bob Heckard, Penn State) - A nice 15 slide introduction (html)
(Source: Easy to read (and with examples) introduction to rules of probability with examples (html)
(Source: Statistics Help-on-line) Easy to read introduction to venn diagrams and probability (html)
(Source: Sandra LaFave, West Valley College) Introduction to Probability (html)

Diagnostic Testing and ROC Curves

UMass PubHlth 540 (Stoddard) Introduction to Sensitivity and Specificity (pdf, 3 pp)
(Source: Halls, S.) Easy to read introduction to sensitivity, specificity, and ROC Curve (html)
(Source: Loong, T) Understanding Sensitivity and Specificity With the Right Side of the Brain BMJ 2003: 327: 716-719 (html)

(Source: Medical University of South Carolina) Example of Sensitivity and Specificity (html)

Bayesian Reasoning
(Source: Yudkowsky Eliezer) An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning (html)
(Source: Norman Fenton, Queen Mary University of London) One page explanation of Bayes Rule (html)

(Source: A.J. Hildebrand, University of Ilinois Urbana-Champaign) Bayes Rule (more mathematical) (pdf, 2 pp)
(Source: R.E.G. Upshur) On Bayes and Clinical Reasoning (pdf)
(Source: Surfstat Australia) An Example of Bayes theorem in medical diagnostics (html)
(Source: The Economist, September 28, 2000) Essay on Bayes. Note 9-21-2008 Unfortunately, now requires log in( (html)
(Source: Robert A.J. Matthews) Essay on the Relevence of Bayes Theorem to Clinicians (html)

Risk, Odds, and Measures of Association for the 2x2 Table
(Source: Frances Boreland at University of Sydney, 2005) Measures of Frequency and Association - 35 easy to read slides (pdf)

(3) Links to Illustrative Applets
(Source:  Berkeley) Applet on venn diagrams and probability (html)
(Source: Shodor Education) Interactive Venn Diagrams (html)
(Source: Charles Stanton) Java Demonstrations for probability and statistics (html)
(Source: Bayes Rule Applet (html)
New! 10-09-2008 (Source: Vassar State) Backward Probability Template (html)

(4) Links to Calculators
UCLA Department of Statistics Probabilites Calculators (click here)
(Source: VassarStats) Probabilities Calculators and lots more wonderful things! (html)
(Source: VassarStats) Clinical Calculator (good for Bayes, predictive value test) (html)
StatTrek Probabilities Calculators, including F (click here)


(5) Miscellaneous
(Source: Dartmouth College) Chance Website (html)
(Source: Probability Questions with Solutions (html)



Welcome | This Week| Syllabus | Lectures |Demonstrations | Assignments | Resources

University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Copyright 2008University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
This is the course web site for BIOEPI 540W, Biostatistics and Epidemiology.
Produced and maintained by the School of Public Health and Health Sciences.
Send comments or questions about this web site to
Page updated: October 27, 2008