Some Papers

• Clark and Shackel on the Two-Envelope Paradox, with Jonathan Weisberg, Mind 112 (2003): 685-689.
  • Clark and Shackel (2000) have argued that previous attempts to resolve the two-envelope paradox fail, and that we must look to symmetries of the relevant expected-value computations for a solution. Clark and Shackel also argue for a novel solution to the peeking case, a variant of the two-envelope scenario in which you are allowed to look in your envelope before deciding whether or not to swap. We argue that Clark and Shackel's proposal requires a revision of standard decision theory. Understood as such, we argue that their proposal is both implausible and unnecessary.

• Three Proposals Regarding A Theory of Chance, Philosophical Perspectives 19 (2005): 281-307.
  • I argue that the theory of chance proposed by David Lewis has three problems: (i) it is time asymmetric in a manner incompatible with some of the chance theories of physics, (ii) it is incompatible with statistical mechanical chances, and (iii) the content of Lewis's Principal Principle depends on how admissibility is cashed out, but there is no agreement as to what admissible evidence should be. I proposes two modifications of Lewis's theory which resolve these difficulties. I conclude by tentatively proposing a third modification of Lewis's theory, one which explains many of the common features shared by the chance theories of physics.

• Sleeping Beauty and the Dynamics of De Se Beliefs, Philosophical Studies, 138 (2008): 245-269.
  • This paper examines three accounts of the sleeping beauty case: an account proposed by Adam Elga, an account proposed by David Lewis, and a third account defended in this paper. It provides two reasons for preferring the third account. First, this account does a good job of capturing the temporal continuity of our beliefs, while the accounts favored by Elga and Lewis do not. Second, Elga's and Lewis' treatments of the sleeping beauty case lead to highly counterintuitive consequences. The proposed account also leads to counterintuitive consequences, but they're not as bad as those of Elga's account, and no worse than those of Lewis' account.

• Two Mistakes Regarding The Principal Principle, forthcoming in the British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
  • This paper examines two mistakes regarding David Lewis' Principal Principle that have appeared in the recent literature. These particular mistakes are worth looking at for several reasons: the thoughts that lead to these mistakes are natural ones, the principles that result from these mistakes are untenable, and these mistakes have led to significant misconceptions regarding the role of admissibility and time. After correcting these mistakes, the paper discusses the correct roles of time and admissibility. With these results in hand, the paper concludes by showing that one way of formulating the chance-credence relation has a distinct advantage over its rivals.

• Unravelling the Tangled Web: Continuity, Internalism, Non-Uniqueness and Self-Locating Beliefs, forthcoming in Oxford Studies in Epistemology, Volume 3.
  • A number of cases involving self-locating beliefs have been discussed in the Bayesian literature. I suggest that many of these cases, such as the sleeping beauty case, are entangled with issues that are independent of self-locating beliefs per se. In light of this, I propose a division of labor: we should address each of these issues separately before we try to provide a comprehensive account of belief updating. By way of example, I sketch some ways of extending Bayesianism in order to accommodate these issues. Then, putting these other issues aside, I sketch some ways of extending Bayesianism in order to accommodate self-locating beliefs. Finally, I propose a constraint on updating rules, the "Learning Principle", which rules out certain kinds of troubling belief changes, and I use this principle to assess some of the available options.

• Unravelling the Tangled Web: Continuity, Internalism, Non-Uniqueness and Self-Locating Beliefs, (extended version).
  • This is an extended version of the Tangled Web paper, which includes a discussion of how these issues bear on the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics.

• Binding and Its Consequences, forthcoming in the Philosophical Studies.
  • In "Bayesianism, Infinite Decisions, and Binding", Arntzenius, Elga and Hawthorne present cases in which agents who cannot bind themselves are driven to choose sequences of actions with disastrous consequences, given standard decision theory. They defend standard decision theory by arguing that if a decision rule leads agents to disaster only when they cannot bind themselves, this should not be taken to be a mark against the decision rule. I show that this claim has surprising implications for a number of other debates in decision theory. I then assess the plausibility of this claim, and suggest that it should be rejected.

• Rejecting Representationalism, with Jonathan Weisberg.
  • Representation theorems are often taken to provide the foundations for decision theory. First, they are taken to characterize degrees of belief and utilities. Second, they are taken to justify two fundamental rules of rationality: that we should have probabilistic degrees of belief and that we should act as expected utility maximizers. We argue that representation theorems cannot serve either of these foundational purposes, and that recent attempts to defend the foundational importance of representation theorems are unsuccessful. As a result, we should reject these claims, and lay the foundations of decision theory on firmer ground.

• Person-Affecting Views and Saturating Counterpart Relations
  • In Reasons and Persons, Parfit posed a challenge: provide a satisfying normative account that solves the Non-Identity Problem, avoids the Repugnant and Absurd Conclusions, and solves the Mere-Addition Paradox. In response, some have suggested that we look toward "person-affecting" views of morality for a solution. But the person-affecting views that have been offered so far have been unable to satisfy Parfit's four requirements, and these views have been subject to a number of independent complaints. This paper describes a person-affecting account which meets Parfit's challenge. The account satisfies Parfit's four requirements, and avoids many of the criticisms that have been raised against person-affecting views.